Winter traditionally excites lots of people within our school community. Students and teachers alike eagerly await snow days to relax and catch up on the latest movies or some sleep. Administrators enjoy a quiet day at work where work can be caught up on. Parents get to spend an unexpected day off with their child. However, winter is often unpredictable in Rockbridge County. Some winters, such as the winter of 2019, snow is seen nearly every week and the school schedule becomes chaotic. On the other hand, some winters, such as 2023, see almost no snow and an uninterrupted calendar. Today we will be examining what the weather prospects look like for this season.
A major factor in predicting the possibilities of winter storms is if we are in an El Nino winter. These do not happen annually and oftentimes they give the Eastern part of the United States more possibilities for winter storms.
Mr. Jeff Haniewich is a meteorologist for WSLS 10 News, based out of Roanoke, Virginia. He explained the effects of El Nino and what it could mean for forecasts this year.
“El Nino pushes the jet stream north and sends more moisture into the country. Therefore, you usually see more wet weather in winters that feature an El Nino. Generally, we see some of our highest snowfall totals in El Nino winters,” said Haniewich.
Haniewich did caution about the fluctuation in temperature that El Nino can bring.
“Temperatures can be all over the place in an El Nino winter, meaning sometimes it’s warmer than average and sometimes it’s cooler than normal,” said Haniewich.
Mr. Leo Hirsbrunner is a meteorologist for WDB7 News, also based out of Roanoke, Virginia. He predicts a wetter winter, although there is still some uncertainty.
“Our winter weather outlook this year looks more promising for snow storms than previous years. There is more moisture to work with this winter season so we increase our chances for snow,” said Hirsbrunner.
Haniewich agrees with Hirsbrunner regarding the presence of moisture in the area, but is curious to see the amount of moisture that is ice rather than pure snow.
“There is always that question of how much ice will we see? Ice steals snow from us because of something called warm air aloft. That means warm air above the surface robs us of snow because the flake either melts into a raindrop or an ice pellet,” said Haniewich.
Both meteorologists expressed how much thought and time goes into their forecasts. Hirsbrunner explained methods the WDBJ7 team uses to predict winter weather.
“We use numerical models and ensembles that take information recorded from weather balloons and then put them into mathematical equations to come up with these forecast models,” said Hirsbrunner.
Haniewich emphasized the discussion that WSLS uses to make the most accurate predictions.
“I am a firm believer that four minds work better than one, so here at WSLS, all four meteorologists have an equal say in our winter weather forecasts. There are times when one meteorologist thinks of something another one doesn’t, so to throw ideas off each other makes our forecasts a true team effort,” said Haniewich.
These talented meteorologists each agree that there is plenty of moisture present within our area to have some snow storms this winter. The main question remains if this moisture will be rain, ice or snow.
Although the snow and cold excites many, it also affects the large farming industry that is very prevalent in Rockbridge. Mr. Tom Stanley is a local farmer who discussed the climates impact on farms in the county.
“The winter precipitation is a welcome change from the dry period. It recharges groundwater levels that sustain our wells and springs. However, the cold temperatures can increase the caloric requirements of farm animals by as much as 10 to 15%. As a consequence, many farmers are having to buy more supplemental feed,” said Stanley.
The winter climate does a number on ground conditions that animals graze. This causes erosion, compaction, and allows weeds to germinate. Stanley shared how this problem can be minimized.
“Farmers try to confine winter feeding activity to certain fields that are level and can be accessed for repair in the early spring. Communication between the farmer and the landowner is key so there is a plan to manage this animal traffic,” said Stanley.
This winter has already brought some adverse conditions to the area. All three school systems have experienced a disrupted schedule. This has also led to challenging conditions for local farmers. However, there is no doubt that Rockbridge looks very beautiful covered with a layer of snow. Stay tuned to see when it will snow next.
